Friday, September 30, 2016

逃跑計劃 - 夜空中最亮的星

我祈禱擁有一顆透明的心靈 . 和會流淚的眼睛




湯文亮﹕耶倫不加息是錯誤決定

湯文亮﹕耶倫不加息是錯誤決定
文章日期:2016年9月30日

【明報專訊】美國聯儲局議息是世界上最大的黑箱作業,沒有人知道他們以什麼理由加息,什麼理有不加息,但我覺得,由伯南克至耶倫,在過去8年,都會給予全世界一個信息,就是在議息前話有機會加息,議息後就求其搵一個理由話點解唔加息。

其實,聯儲局是否加息的理由只有一個,就是在乎有沒有國家或者基金買美國債券,如果有,莫講話加息,就算負利率都會出現,除了這個理由之外,其他如失業率、美國大選,以及各種我不懂得的數據,全部都是枝枝葉葉,當然是不能夠太過離譜,當有人大幅減持美國債券,美聯儲局就會決定加息。

上星期美聯儲局議息後決定不加息,雖然耶倫在公報不加息後半小時再發公布,表示如果沒有特別壞的情况出現,聯儲局今年最少加一次息,我覺得耶倫這個公布其實是補鑊,加息是在所必行,而且要愈快愈好,大家可能會不明白,已經有著名分析員話明年都毋須要加息,但點解我話愈快愈好。

在7月初,前獅子山學會會長王弼同我輸賭,佢話7月底加息,我話唔會,為了公平起見,一定要在美國總統大選後才會加息,當時,我唔知道王弼以什麼理據話7月底會加息,如果我知道,我就唔會同佢賭,我估計,王弼已經有渠道知道世界上有很多國家包括中國、日本、沙特阿垃伯等國家開始減持美國債券,當時只不過是開始,現在已經連續3個月,減持的數量相當大,如果唔立刻加息穩定美元,要等美國總統大選後才加息,即是要多等兩三個月,到12月加息時必定要快要急,並且會出現連續性。

12月加息時 必定要快要急

所以,我才作出美聯儲局在9月有機會加息的預測,雖然我被人笑,其實,耶倫已經作出加息的決定,不過是暫緩執行,不過,我仍然認為,耶倫沒有立刻加息是錯誤的決定。

紀惠集團行政總裁

[湯文亮 敢說亮話]

http://www.mpfinance.com/fin/columnist2.php?col=1463481149913&node=1475177752830&issue=20160930

曾淵滄﹕愈多政客抗議 股價升得愈高

曾淵滄﹕愈多政客抗議 股價升得愈高
文章日期:2016年9月30日

【明報專訊】過去一個星期,恒指呈上落市,美國總統大選電視辯論前曾經引起一些震盪,理由是被稱為「瘋子」的候選人特朗普民調支持度追上老政客希拉里,不過,電視辯論後,股市收復失地,一般美國民眾認為希拉里的電視辯論表現較好,但是總統選舉畢竟不是辯論比賽,我們還得繼續留意兩人的民調結果。

不用太擔心特朗普勝選

許多人擔心特朗普當上美國總統,但我比較樂觀,正如英國公投結果脫歐,許多人也很擔心,我則看好,最終證明是我對而許多人錯。過去多年,美國新總統在上任前與上任後根本就是兩個人,上任後的總統可以完全忘記他在競選時講過的話,當年,克林頓在競選期間說他如果當選,會取消美國給予中國的最優惠貿易待遇國的資格,但是,克林頓上任後,第一件事是給予中國永久的最大優惠貿易待遇國資格,不必每年檢討。

奧巴馬任期只剩4個多月,開始成為跛腳鴨,美國國會完全不給面子,推翻了奧巴馬的總統否決權而強行通過法律,允許美國911事件的家屬控告沙特阿拉伯政府,今後沙特阿拉伯政府麻煩了,美國也麻煩了。

去年,沙特阿拉伯大量增產石油,據說是響應美國的號召,目的是在低石油價格以打擊俄羅斯,很神奇的巧合,美國國會否決奧巴馬的否決權同一天,沙特阿拉伯及其他石油出口國決定減產石油,是6年來第一次,這項行動有沒有政治意味?石油價格上升,俄羅斯就更有錢來與美國對抗,石油價格一升,依賴入口石油的日本受最大打擊。

內地煤礦停產 煤礦股最受惠

石油價格一升,煤礦股價格升的最多,兗州煤(1171)昨日升上9.55%,這隻股份我推薦過多次,石油股與煤礦股都屬燃料股,升則同升,跌也一齊跌,中國產煤多,煤礦股近期表現好的另一個更重要的原因,是中國政府嚴格執行供給側改革的政策,大量小型煤礦被迫停產,得益的自然是上市的煤礦股。

近來有傳媒報道新世界發展(0017)在橫洲的收地黑幕之類的事,這不是壞事,從小股東的角度來看,更可以說是好事,這證明新世界的確賺了很多錢,所以才會引來搞政府的人抗議。這種情况有如領展(0823)與港鐵(0066),愈多政客抗議,股價就升得愈高。

大學教授

[曾淵滄 滄海明珠]

Dyson orders in FY17 seen accelerating for VS Industry

Dyson orders in FY17 seen accelerating for VS Industry
By RHB Research Institute / The Edge Financial Daily | September 30, 2016 : 9:55 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 30, 2016.

VS Industry Bhd
(Sept 29, RM1.39)
Maintain buy with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM1.72: After growing revenue from Dyson Ltd by 52% in financial year 2016 (FY16), orders from Dyson would continue to accelerate in FY17 as VS Industry Bhd takes on full-assembly jobs to manufacture cordless vacuum cleaners. This is in addition to the existing printed circuit board and battery pack orders from Dyson.

Production ramp-up could start as soon as next month or November, and we estimate this could contribute to around RM400 million to RM500 million to FY17 forecast top line. FY18 could see a further surge in Dyson orders, as more assembly lines go live in the first half of this year.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc’s orders would also pick up in FY17 as VS Industry commences production of its first original design manufacturer-brewer model in January. The first quarter of FY17 (1QFY17) would see a catch-up in delivery of brewer models initially scheduled for shipment in 4QFY16. VS Industry’s Indonesian operations turned profitable in FY16 on better utilisation. Excluding the impairment on deposit paid for the solar project, core operations in China booked a RM2.9 million in profit before tax, from RM7.6 million in losses last year. In the coming year, profitability in China would be buoyed by orders of water filtration products from NEP Holdings (M) Bhd, which would add at least RM100 million per annum in revenue. Recall that NEP Holdings has a five-year tie-up with a subsidiary of Haier Electronics Group Co Ltd to distribute the former’s products via the latter’s strong 40,000 retail outlets.

We continue to like VS Industry for its diversified and growing earnings base from key customers such as Keurig, Dyson and Zodiac. As results were in line, we make no changes to our earnings forecasts and TP of RM1.72, supported by a corroborative discounted cash flow valuation. Key risks to our forecasts include weak consumer sentiment, plant accidents and foreign-exchange movements. — RHB Research Institute, Sept 29

Gamuda FY16 results broadly in line with forecasts

Gamuda FY16 results broadly in line with forecasts
By CIMB Investment Bank / The Edge Financial Daily | September 30, 2016 : 9:59 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 30, 2016.



Gamuda Bhd
(Sept 29, RM4.90)
Maintain add with a higher target price (TP) of RM5.97: Gamuda Bhd’s financial year ended July 31, 2016 (FY16) core net profit was 3% above our and 2% ahead of consensus forecasts. The overall results were broadly in line. The 8.3% decline in core net profit was largely expected, given the tail-end recognition of mass rapid transit Line 1 (MRT1) earnings and lower property development margins. FY16 marked an inflection point where new MRT2 earnings on the back of an all-time high order book of RM9 billion began to flow into FY17. The total 12 sen single-tier dividend per share for the full year was in line with our expectations.

Potential larger-value construction wins were the main positive surprise from Gamuda’s results briefing. Over the next 12 months, management targets to secure RM3 billion to RM4 billion worth of infrastructure projects. These could come from: i) light rail transit Line 3; ii) subcontract works for the Gemas-Johor Baru double-tracking rail project; and iii) Pan Borneo Highway in Sabah. The new guidance puts the value of each targeted package at about RM1 billion.

With the award phase of MRT2 underway, MRT Corp Sdn Bhd is now targeting to submit the feasibility studies for MRT3 by end-2016. MRT3 is likely to be largely underground and the most tunnel-intensive. The potential contract value could be substantially higher than the RM15.5 billion underground scope for MRT2 given the higher cost per kilometre. Gamuda has so far secured underground packages from MRT1 and MRT2 via the MMC-Gamuda joint venture (50:50).

Gamuda is positioning itself to tender for the RM30 billion-to-RM40 billion Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) project now that the project has better tender time visibility, which is end-2017. Its management highlighted that a project of this size and scale fits into the group’s expertise and track record. At this juncture, it only targets to tender for the civil works but remains open to the possibility of taking on a bigger role in the project. However, this would depend on the final project structure.

We raise our TP from RM5.92 as we roll over our valuation to end-2017 (still pegged to a 10% discount to revised net asset value). We continue to like Gamuda for its earnings turnaround in FY17 and exposure to large-scale rail projects. It remains our sector top pick. Downside risk is delay in job roll-outs but this is outweighed by the revival of job wins, sale of water asset and likely recovery in foreign shareholding (currently at a low of 22%). — CIMB Investment Bank, Sept 29

SapuraKencana 1H earnings account for 98% full-year estimate

SapuraKencana 1H earnings account for 98% full-year estimate
By Kenanga Research / The Edge Financial Daily | September 30, 2016 : 9:56 AM MYT

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on September 30, 2016.

SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd
(Sept 29, RM1.57)
Maintain market perform with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM1.48: In the first half ended July 31, 2016 (1HFY17), SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd booked a core net profit of RM191.3 million, which is deemed within expectations despite accounting for 98% and 91% of our and consensus full-year estimates as we expect a weaker 2HFY17 on potential drag by weaker engineering and construction (E&C) and drilling segments. Our core net profit excludes the one-off gain of RM37 million arising from the cessation of Berantai risk service contract (RSC). No dividend was declared as expected.

Sequentially, SapuraKencana’s second quarter ended July 31, 2016 (2QFY17) earnings dropped 36% from 1QFY17 in tandem with a 14% drop in overall revenue due to weaker contribution from the drilling segment. However, it was partially offset by better joint venture and associate contributions, led by stronger earnings from pipelay support vessels chartered to Petróleo Brasileiro SA with the commencement of Sapura Esmeralda in April 2016, as well as improvement in the E&C segment. Note that E&C recorded a 53% growth in profit before tax quarter-on-quarter despite a 22% drop in revenue due largely to recognition of higher-margined projects and better asset utilisation post monsoon.

On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, earnings fell 79% from RM352.3 million in 2QFY16, in line with a 40% decline in top line, largely marred by weaker contributions across all divisions. The energy segment’s earnings contribution fell significantly to RM6 million from RM63.9 million y-o-y due to lower average lifting oil prices at US$48 (RM197.76) a barrel versus US$65 a barrel in the corresponding period a year ago and exclusion of earnings contribution from the Berantai RSC. Cumulatively, 1HFY17 core net profit fell 68% to RM191.3 million from RM600.8 million in 1HFY16 due to weakening revenue and margins for all three segments.

SapuraKencana’s latest order book weakened to RM17.7 billion from RM19.8 billion in 1QFY17, mainly comprising tenders for its E&C division. The company expects RM4.4 billion and RM3.4 billion to be recognised in 2HFY17 and FY18 respectively. Its tender book was reduced to US$6 billion from US$7 billion in 1QFY17 following several contract wins. We are seeing slower contract replenishment in the next two years in the absence of fabrication and offshore jobs as a result of cautious spending by oil majors.

Despite 1HFY17 earnings accounting for 98% of our full-year forecast, we are maintaining our FY17 and FY18 earnings forecasts in view of weaker prospects in 2HFY17 arising from a weaker drilling segment as well as lower contribution from the E&C segment.

We are maintaining our TP at RM1.48, pegged to 0.7 times FY18 price-to-book value (P/BV), higher than the current sector valuation of 0.6 times P/BV. — Kenanga Research, Sept 29

Scientex launches operations of RM220m BOPP film plant

Scientex launches operations of RM220m BOPP film plant
By Surin Murugiah / theedgemarkets.com | September 29, 2016 : 12:02 PM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 29): Packaging manufacturer Scientex Berhad has launched operations of its new RM220 million BOPP film manufacturing plant — the largest such facility in Malaysia — in Pulau Indah, Selangor.

BOPP film forms the protective outer layer of flexible consumer packaging, and is commonly used in the food and beverages industry.

The new plant, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 metric tonnes (MT), was constructed in collaboration with Futamura Chemical Co., Ltd. (Futamura), a plastic films manufacturer and the largest BOPP film manufacturer in Japan.

The plant is equipped with state-of-the-art machinery from Japan Steel Works, Ltd., capable of wider-web and higher-speed film production.

In a statement today, Scientex managing director Lim Peng Jin said the inauguration marked an important milestone for Scientex, as it combines Japan’s technological prowess with Scientex’s manufacturing efficiency, to produce high quality BOPP film for domestic and regional markets in Asia Pacific.

“We look forward to fulfilling anticipated strong market demand, as Malaysia presently imports most of its BOPP requirements, due to a shortage in local supply.

“We also strive to capture new growth opportunities in the regional markets.

“This is certainly a pivotal moment for our consumer packaging business, as we are now one step ahead in realizing our target of becoming a leading single-source provider of international-quality consumer packaging films in the region.”

Futamura holds a 10% shareholding in Scientex Great Wall Sdn Bhd (SGW), the Group’s consumer packaging unit, and would purchase approximately one third of the new plant’s annual BOPP film production.

“We have been aggressively marketing our high-performance BOPP film to several packaging players, both domestically and regionally, and have also conducted product trials with them.

“We are pleased to receive commendable feedback to date, and look forward to commence supply to them in the near term,” Lim said.

At 11.32 a.m., Scientex gained 0.59% or 4 sen to RM6.79, with 236,600 shares done.